If you track stock prices then are you wondering what happened last Wednesday?
With no headlines, no Fed announcements, no war, suddenly stocks crashed …
What took place is that something very dangerous (financially) happened.
At exactly 1:00 PM ET, the U.S. Treasury held an auction to sell $16 billion in 20-year bonds basically asking investors: “Who wants to lend the U.S. government money for two decades?” Normally, these auctions go unnoticed. But this time, something snapped. Investors didn’t like the terms. They wanted to be paid more to take on that risk. A lot more.
The result? The auction “cleared” at a yield of 5.047%. That’s the interest rate the Treasury had to offer to find enough buyers. And that yield was 24 basis points higher than last month’s auction. (1 basis point = 0.01%, so we’re talking a jump of nearly a quarter percentage point in just 30 days.) That’s not normal. It’s a sign the market was backing away.
But it wasn’t just the high yield, it was the tail that set off alarm bells. In bond auctions, the “tail” is the gap between the market’s expected rate just before the auction and the actual rate the Treasury ends up paying. A big tail means demand was weaker than anticipated. This one had a tail of 1.2 basis points, its worst in over a year. It was a clear sign that investors were reluctant to show up.
And the moment that result hit the tape, yields across the bond market exploded higher. The 20-year yield jumped from about 5.03% to over 5.12%. The 10-year surged toward 4.61%. The 30-year ripped past 5.10%. That’s how bond markets scream and then the equity markets listened.
Every percentage point increase in yields means the Treasury has to pay billions more in interest. With over $34 trillion in debt, even small yield spikes blow up the deficit. This past week’s auction made it clear: investors are demanding higher compensation to lend to the U.S. for the long term.
Here is Ray Dalio explaining how this ripples out …
It is the willingness to add literally trillions to the national debt that has spooked the buyers of long yield bonds, and yet despite this very clear warning, they are still pushing ahead with the Big Beautiful Bill. Is made it through the house on Thursday.
The stupidity and incompetence in play right now, for those that have their finger on the pulse, is truly frightening stuff.
When investors lose faith in how a government is managing its finances, they start demanding even higher yields. That’s the return of the bond vigilantes, investors who push back against reckless fiscal policy by dumping bonds and forcing rates higher. They’re sending a message: “If you won’t tighten your belt, we’ll tighten financial conditions for you.”
Now here is the dangerous part: yields don’t just drift higher. They can spike in a feedback loop. Higher yields lead to weaker auctions. Weaker auctions lead to even higher yields. That tightens financial conditions faster than the Fed ever intended. At some point, something breaks.
That Wednesday spike was a very clear warning … and it is of course being ignored.
OK, let’s dig into some of the other crazy highlights from the past week.
Trump’s Big Beautiful Pile of …
Yes, he has been promising tax cuts and a new golden age. Andrew Prokop @ Vox (Mon May 19th): did a deep dive into this dung heap of a bill to reveal what is really inside it – The ugly truth about Trump’s big, beautiful bill (Paywall) …
Trump wants a few main things from the bill. First is preventing the “Trump tax cuts” he passed back in 2017 from expiring at the end of the year. Second is passing, in some form, a bunch of new tax breaks he promised during the campaign, such as “no tax on tips.” Third is spending a bunch more money on immigration enforcement and the military. Fourth is an increase in the debt ceiling (the limit on new debt the government can issue, which Congress periodically has to agree to raise).
All this is quite expensive, so how will Republicans pay for it? Mostly, they won’t: The vast majority of it will be unpaid for
Many others do truly grasp who really benefits …
@pkrugman.bsky.social has a chart that is even more telling (see here) …
Some are indeed rightly pissed about it. This was Jim McGovern, the top Democrat on the House Rules Committee, at the 1am hearing last Wed calling it out for what it really was (yes, Republicans really were trying to ram it through in the dead of night last Wednesday) …
- McGovern: “You are literally taking food off kids’ plates to buy Elon Musk another yacht. I guess he’s getting a good return on his campaign donations … this is not policy. This is theft.“
- McGovern: “Now of course you don’t want anybody to know what you’re doing here. It’s because you know this bill betrays the people who voted for you…you are intentionally hiding what you are doing…that’s what you guys think is big and beautiful: greed, corruption, & tax breaks for billionaires.“
- McGovern: “What the hell are Republicans so afraid of? What the hell are so scared of that you guys are holding this hearing at 1 in the morning … if Republicans are so proud of what’s in this bill, why are you trying to ram it through in dead of night?“
What is happening is not just greed, it is theft on a massive scale …
Oh but hang on now, have some symphony for the 1%, that 3rd super yacht is not going to pay for itself.
Multiple layers of Lunacy, utter incompetence, and corruption
A red line has been crossed …
The Ultimate Grift-a-Thon is coming up soon …
Turns out that he asked for the bribe. Via CNN: “Trump first approached Qatar to inquire about (Swamp Force One)— contrary to the narrative from the president that Qatar reached out and offered the jet as a ‘gift’ to him.” www.cnn.com/2025/05/19/p…
Public endorsements of those that oppose him is now apparently illegal …
- Yes, that rant from him went out at 01:34am last Monday
- For clarity (and you already knew this), FEC rules allow voluntary endorsements, and there’s no proof of wrongdoing
Meanwhile, he continues to vigorously grift …
… and this has been happening …
- It’s totally wild that all the MAGA cult members in the chat are against DEI hires, but is perfectly fine with unqualified buddy hires.
You can’t do science without scientists …
And then on Friday “destroying the economy” has reentered the chat. Yep, here we go again …
- In Communist America, Dear Leader sets iPhone prices … and perhaps also Tim Cook getting punished for not buying in to Trump’s crypto dinner.
- You know how this plays out. He announces something colossally stupid … the market collapses … Trump gets scared and walks back his idiocy … market recovers. Rinse and repeat over and over again. It really is a total clown show.
- Trump understands that tariff threats like the one he posted above moves markets downward. He’s not ignorant about that dynamic. The question is which person or interest around him is gaining from it. (Everyone who paid to meet him the night before perhaps?)
South African President Bushwhacked by Trump in Oval Office
“what would happen if you put the black president of South Africa in a room with a demented white supremacist?” is not a question anybody asked, but we got our answer last Wednesday.
Ramaphosa was there to talk about trade, and then suddenly Trump takes a left-hand turn, gets a TV wheeled into the room and proceeds to promote a demented and very discredited whacky conspiracy theory.
Trump claimed the video was showing over a thousand “burial sites” in South Africa, with aerial footage of a long procession of vehicles moving in one lane of traffic between rows of white crosses. Trump lied that each cross marked the grave of a white farmer or murdered family member.
Fact Check: It had nothing to do with “white genocide.” it was one protest of the non-race-related murder of two farmers, who were killed during a botched robbery…
It was a protest in response to the murder of a farm couple, Glen and Vida Rafferty, who were killed during a botched robbery of their farm in 2020. Nothing I can find suggests that they were targeted for being white; the robbers broke into their home to get at the safe, couldn’t open it, and waited for them to return home. After ambushing and shooting them, the murderers stole their car and some home items. Horrible, but not anything at all close to what Trump said about the video.
He then pulled out visual aids and held up photos that he claimed were of murdered white South African farmers. Spoiler alert: they weren’t it was stuff from a completely different nation, the Congo, and involved the brutal murder of non-white people.
Watching what happening last Wednesday was deeply embarrassing.
Ramaphosa kept cool …
- Wrap your head around the above – The president of a foreign nation jokes about not having a large enough bribe to give to him … and Trump is so stupid an incompetent that he misses that it was a joke and takes it seriously.
Ramaphosa also knew something akin to this was very possible so he did come prepared. In his delegation in the room were wealthy white guys from South Africa ready to step in and explain the white genocide claims were BS, and that is exactly what happened …
More war against Harvard
Baron Trump did not get accepted to Harvard, Columbia or Stanford. One can only wonder if it a coincidence that Trump is going after Harvard, Columbia and Stanford.
So anyway, this week the administration bans all foreign student enrolment in ti Harvard. In response Harvard sues and a Judge who then blocks that.
The White House then doubles down.
MAGA morons are going after Harvard because they are going after their enemies: In this case that enemy is Education.
Below is the letter from harvard’s president: trump admin “continues a series of government actions to retaliate against harvard for our refusal to surrender our academic independence and to submit to the federal government’s illegal assertion of control over our curriculum, our faculty, and our student body.”
More informally Harvard University’s Sidechat just called on the school to BLACKLIST Trump supporters on campus. “Until Trump backs down (if he does), I think we blacklist Trump supporters on campus. Don’t let them into clubs, don’t be friends with them, certainly don’t date them. Bring back real social consequences for politically affiliating with a fascist.” Sidechat is an app where students and faculty can sign up with their .edu email and post anonomously within the school.
They are also striking back with some free online education …
- Am I making that last bit up? Nope, it is quite real, here is the course – It started May 24 (Yesterday), runs for 7 weeks and has over 10,000 enrolled.
And for completeness, here is a link to all their free courses.
What is Habeas Corpus?
Noem not knowing what habeas corpus is …
Clay Jones – I see stupid people #KristiNoem #HabeasCorpus #Trump #MAGA #Constitution
Bullshit barbie insights
He expects his peons to rip out one’s soul, and not many are willing to do that with the alacrity, thoroughness or finality he requires, but some are indeed willing. Karoline Leavitt crawls out from under some rock to give daily public demonstrations of this.
Who pays the tariffs? …
A very blatant lie …
Rinse and repeat – it is just a long continuous stream of blatantly false propaganda that would put that Lady on North Korean TV to shame.
This sums it up rather well …
Biden
Jnr has pinned this tweet to his timeline on twitter …
- “Dr” Jill Biden is a reference to her PhD in Education, she is not a medical doctor, but apparently Jnr is way too stupid to grasp that even after numerous commenters pointed that out, so he pins it to his timeline.
US alone in Denial of the Greatest Threat
The greatest threat ever faced by our species is climate change and literally every nation state on the planet is on board with taking decisive action … well, almost every nation, there is one exception …
FEMA is MIA
ST. LOUIS wants federal help after a storm — meanwhile Mississippi has been waiting months. As Trump “overhauls” (cuts/tries to privatize) FEMA. Predictable consequences of electing people who don’t believe in government helping people who aren’t them.
Oh and let’s forget that there will be a vast decrease in warnings. A staggering 40% of the country’s weather forecast offices have significant staffing vacancies. Some offices can no longer operate overnight – imperiling their ability to warn people of imminent extreme weather. Make no mistake: DOGE’s cuts put American lives at risk.
Illegal Deportations
The very definition of evil is incarcerating for life in one of the worst hellholes on Earth men who did everything right. But it’s beyond evil—beyond demonic—to then not try to do anything to save the men you consigned to Hell, *and* to in fact libel and slander them daily when they cannot reply.
GOP 2025
Christian Nationalists
The nuttier right-wing religious fanatics within the cult are as always doing their thing.
- Time and again, the “evidence” cited by Christian nationalists like Pastor Jack Hibbs is stuff they just make up. (His claim that the Founding Fathers based the separation of powers on Isaiah 33:22 has been debunked many times, but they all keep repeating it, so here is that debunking once again www.peoplefor.org/rightwingwat.)
- Here is another example from the past week. He claimed that the Founding Fathers banned Catholics from serving as president or in Congress. (Nope, another lie, they did nothing of the sort and the Constitution explicitly prohibited religious tests for holding federal office. www.peoplefor.org/rightwingwat.) In fact, this ban must have been a surprise to Daniel Carroll, a Catholic, who signed the Constitution and then served in the very first Congress. www.archives.gov/founding-doc.
- Doug Wilson suggests that the U.S could officially establish itself as a Christian nation by passing an amendment so that “the Apostle’s Creed could be incorporated into the Constitution.” (For a bit of context to explain what he wants, here is a clip of him complaining that by giving women the right to vote, “we were, in fact, taking it away from families.”)
- Mario Murillo proclaims that America will soon see so many supernatural events that atheism will be rendered obsolete. (Big if true. Just one verifiable example would do it, but so far it is exactly zero – this however is just him grifting his base for $$$ with a fantasy).
And since he has worked so hard for it, let’s give Mr Webbon his own separate list of lunacy from the past week …
- Joel Webbon is urging right-wing Christian business owners to “crush their enemies” by refusing to hire non-Christians. – (But of course he is, “Intolerance incarnate” is the core of his specific whacky belief system, or and in that same talk he also falsely claims Democrats murder their opponents.)
- He also says that if we are going to live in a society where everybody gets to vote, then he should get 20 votes because “my voice is more important.“… he then follows that up with this – A better solution, suggests Webbon, is to allow only men like him to vote while everyone else gets to live under their “federal headship.“.
The False Profit$
QAnon conspiracy theorist/self-proclaimed “prophet” Johnny Enlow declares that “in the eyes of the Lord, [Trump] is not just President of the United States, he’s King of the World.“
- Every other nation state on the planet – “Nope, we are not joining your weird cult“
Weirdest of the Weird
Benny Johnson has gone full QAnon, bringing on conspiracy theorist Liz Crokin to explain how the deep state cabal engages in “predictive programming” by using shows like “The Simpsons” to announce their satanic plans to the world.
- Liz is indeed deeply delusional and still very into QAnon. She was famously the original source for Roseanne Barr’s deleted tweet in March 2018 claiming President Donald Trump had released hundreds of children from bondage each month
- During Trump I she also claimed that “thousands of high-level political, business and entertainment figures are involved in cannibalistic satanic pedophilia” would be proven as true before President Trump leaves office
Michele Bachmann reveals that she gave current White House adviser Stephen Miller his first job in Congress, based on a recommendation from David Horowitz.
- Ah … so it’s her fault.
Political Cartoons from the past week
As always, there are many excellent cartoons. Here are a few samples. Each comes with a link to the cartoonist putting the cartoon out via BlueSky. If you are on Bluesky then you can use the link to follow them.
Clay Bennett (yes again, but I like them both) …
Finally
Evidence …
Dear leader speaks …
Absolutely no problem here … right?
Is it $1.98 anywhere, or was that just another lie? (Hint: I know the answer, and I know you know) …
Bonus Items – #FAFO
The Trump Memecoin suckers have now also reached the FO stage (it dropped 16% the morning after the gala for his buyers) …
The above is do very him. An inalterable feature of any Trump event: – he’ll _always_ over-promise and under-deliver. What you thought was free won’t be, what you thought would be long will be short—or fancy, cheap. The perks you desired will be removed without warning.